Natural gas futures 2026: guide to NG, MNG and QG

What are natural gas futures?

Natural gas futures are standardized, exchange-listed contracts that give exposure to the future price of natural gas. The most closely followed US contract is Henry Hub Natural Gas futures, which trades on NYMEX, part of CME Group.

Henry Hub is a physical hub for natural gas pipelines in Louisiana and serves as the key US price benchmark for natural gas. It's used by producers, power companies, industrial firms, LNG players, banks, hedge funds and traders who want to hedge or speculate on the future price of natural gas. Henry Hub carries weight because the area has large pipeline capacity, access to storage, production and several end markets.

For a trader, this means you don't need to own physical natural gas. You trade the price movement in a futures contract. You can go long if you think the natural gas price will rise, or short if you think it will fall.

Natural gas futures are often referred to as:

• Natural gas futures
• Henry Hub futures
• NG futures
• MNG futures
• QG futures

All these terms are used by traders, but they don't always refer to the same contract. That's why it's important to understand the ticker, contract size and settlement type before you open a position.

NG futures: what it actually refers to

NG is the ticker for the standard contract, Henry Hub Natural Gas futures on NYMEX.

It's more precise to say that NG tracks Henry Hub natural gas than to say NG represents "all natural gas." The natural gas market is regional. Prices are influenced by local infrastructure, production, storage, weather, LNG terminals and transport capacity.

Henry Hub is the US benchmark. In Europe, the TTF price in the Netherlands is often followed instead, while Asian LNG markets are often referenced against JKM. These markets can influence each other through LNG trade, but they aren't identical instruments.

Should I trade NG, MNG or QG?

The difference between NG, MNG and QG is critical. All three give exposure to Henry Hub natural gas, but the risk per move is very different.

MNG is 1/10 of the standard contract NG. The contract has the same Henry Hub reference, but gives retail traders far better control over risk. CME states that MNG represents 1,000 MMBtu, has a tick value of $1, and is financially settled.

QG is larger than MNG, but smaller than NG. It represents 2,500 MMBtu. QG differs from MNG in that the minimum tick is $0.005 per MMBtu, equal to $12.50 per tick.

What's a tick worth in natural gas futures?

In natural gas, it's important to understand both the tick value and how much a typical price move actually means in dollars.

This is why natural gas shouldn't be treated as a small or quiet contract. When the market moves $0.20 or $0.30 per MMBtu in a short time, the consequence in NG can be substantial.

It's the same market move, but a completely different level of risk.

Why trade natural gas futures in 2026?

Natural gas is interesting because the market often has clear fundamental drivers. A trader doesn't just have to look at the price chart. Weather, storage data, production, LNG exports and power demand can give structure to why the price is moving.

Natural gas often trends strongly when the market faces a clear physical imbalance. A colder-than-expected weather picture can lift heating demand. A hot summer can increase power consumption for cooling. A drop in production or LNG disruptions can also move the market quickly.

At the same time, the market is demanding because expectations are often priced in before the news itself arrives. It's not enough that the storage data is bullish or bearish. What matters is how the figures deviate from market expectations, prior data, the five-year average and the upcoming weather forecast.

Natural gas therefore suits traders who:

• Follow fixed report times
• Understand contract size and dollar risk
• Have a clear plan before news-driven moves
• Don't chase price after the first impulse
• Are comfortable with high volatility
• Use stop-losses and controlled position sizing

How does natural gas move?

Natural gas often moves differently than index futures, gold and oil. In the index market, rates, macro data, earnings and risk sentiment are the key drivers. In natural gas, the weather in the US over the next ten to fifteen days can matter more than a single macro headline.

Weather models can move the market before the weather arrives

The natural gas market looks ahead. If weather models show a colder winter period in key US population areas, the market can start pricing in higher demand before the cold actually arrives.

The same applies in summer. Extreme heat can increase power consumption as more people use air conditioning. Higher power demand can mean higher gas consumption in US power generation, especially in areas where natural gas is a major energy source.

Storage data often creates fast reactions

The EIA publishes a weekly overview of how much natural gas sits in US underground storage. The report shows whether the market had a net injection or withdrawal of gas, and how the storage level compares to prior years and the five-year average. The EIA describes this report as a central weekly data point for the natural gas market.

Natural gas can reverse brutally

A first reaction after EIA data or a new weather forecast isn't always the final direction. The market can first break higher, before buyers lose momentum and the price falls back through VWAP. The same can happen on the downside.

That's why natural gas is often a market where it can be wiser to wait for acceptance above or below a level rather than buying or selling the first tick after a headline.

Contract specifications for NG, MNG and QG

CME states that NG is physically deliverable, while MNG and QG are financially settled. That means active retail traders will usually find MNG and QG easier to handle at expiry, but all contracts still need to be followed closely around rollover and contract switching.

How much margin does natural gas futures require?

Example with a natural gas price of $3.50 per MMBtu:

At a natural gas price of $3.50, you therefore control exposure of about $35,000 in a single NG contract, even though the margin at the broker can be far lower.

Low margin doesn't mean low risk. It just means you get control over a large notional position with limited capital tied up as collateral.

Margin can also change quickly. This happens especially when volatility rises, during periods of extreme weather forecasts, ahead of the winter months, around major geopolitical events, or when the market moves sharply.

NG, MNG or QG: which should European traders use?

For most European retail traders, MNG will be the most natural place to start.

MNG makes it possible to learn how natural gas reacts to EIA data, weather forecasts and technical levels without every small move having too large an effect on the account.

NG shouldn't be chosen just because the chart looks clear. The standard contract can be efficient for professional traders, but the dollar risk gets large quickly.

QG isn't necessarily the best compromise for everyone. Even though the contract is smaller than NG, the tick value is higher than both NG and MNG because the minimum price move is $0.005 per MMBtu. That makes QG less flexible for some scalping strategies.

Key drivers of natural gas futures

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

The EIA report is normally released every Thursday at 10:30am Eastern Time, which usually corresponds to 4:30pm CET. The report shows the amount of "working gas" in US underground storage and the change from the prior week.

The market doesn't just judge whether the figure is high or low. It typically compares:

• Actual injection or withdrawal
• Expectations ahead of the report
• The prior week's figure
• The same week a year earlier
• The five-year average
• Regional storage data
• Upcoming weather forecasts
• The production and LNG picture

A bullish storage report typically means a smaller injection than expected or a larger withdrawal than expected. A bearish report typically means a larger injection than expected or a smaller withdrawal than the market had priced in.

Weather and temperature forecasts

Weather is often the most important short-term driver in natural gas.

In winter, the market is especially sensitive to temperatures in the Midwest, the Northeast US and other areas with high heating demand. A colder forecast can raise expectations of higher gas consumption and lower storage.

In summer, extreme temperatures matter too. More heat can increase the need for power for cooling, and thereby increase gas consumption in the power sector.

It's important to understand that the market reacts to changes in the forecast, not just the temperature itself. If the market already expects cold, but a new model turns even colder, natural gas can rise. If the market expects cold, but the forecast turns milder, natural gas can fall even though the weather is still cold.

US production

US natural gas production is influenced by activity in areas like the Marcellus, Haynesville and Permian Basin.

Some natural gas is produced directly from gas fields, while other gas comes as a byproduct of oil production. That means developments in oil production can also affect natural gas supply.

A drop in production, pipeline maintenance, technical issues or extreme weather can reduce supply quickly. If this happens at the same time as a bullish weather picture, the market can see strong upside moves.

LNG exports

LNG has made the Henry Hub market more connected to global energy markets.

When US natural gas is cooled and exported as LNG, it affects availability in the domestic market. High LNG demand can support the Henry Hub price, while terminal problems, lower export capacity or weaker global demand can pressure it.

That doesn't mean Henry Hub and European TTF always move in lockstep. But LNG means price differences between the US, Europe and Asia matter more than they used to.

Power demand and coal-to-gas switching

Natural gas competes in parts of the power market with coal, renewables, nuclear and other energy sources.

When the natural gas price is relatively low compared to coal, power producers can choose more gas in electricity generation. When natural gas becomes more expensive, some of that demand can fall or shift toward other energy sources where possible.

This is often called "coal-to-gas switching" and is an important part of the fundamental picture, especially during periods of high power demand.

Pipelines, production issues and extreme weather

Natural gas depends on physical infrastructure. Pipelines, processing plants, storage and LNG terminals all need to function at the same time.

Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, cold weather affecting production, pipeline problems or technical outages can lead to fast moves. Such news can be hard to trade directly, because the first reaction often happens before retail traders manage to interpret the situation.

Seasonality and the futures curve

Natural gas has clear seasonal patterns.

Winter contracts often trade at a different price than summer contracts because the market expects differences in heating demand, storage needs and the risk of cold spells.

The futures curve can be:

• Contango: later contracts trade higher than the nearest contract.
• Backwardation: the nearest contract trades higher than later contracts.

The curve can give information about the market's expectations for supply, storage and season. It shouldn't be used alone as a buy or sell signal, but can be useful as part of the bigger picture.

What's the difference between Henry Hub and European natural gas?

European traders need to distinguish between Henry Hub and European gas prices.

NG, MNG and QG track Henry Hub in the US. This is not the same as European TTF gas, Norwegian gas exports, or Nordic power prices.

Henry Hub is primarily influenced by:

• US production
• US storage
• US weather
• US power demand
• LNG exports from the US
• Pipelines and infrastructure in the US

TTF is more heavily influenced by:

• European weather
• LNG imports to Europe
• Norwegian gas exports
• Russian gas and geopolitical conditions
• European storage
• European industrial demand
• Energy policy and the power market

The LNG market creates a link between the regions, but natural gas is still more regional than oil. That's why a trader trading NG shouldn't base their analysis solely on headlines about a European energy crisis or Norwegian gas exports.

Should I choose natural gas futures, an ETF or a CFD?

Futures give the most direct exposure to the Henry Hub market. But direct exposure also means you need full control over contract size, tick value, expiry and risk.

Natural gas ETFs can seem simpler, but many ETFs need to roll futures contracts continuously. That can create a gap between the ETF's return and the development of the spot price of natural gas.

When are natural gas futures traded?

NG, MNG and QG trade nearly around the clock on CME Globex. CME states trading runs Sunday through Friday with a daily technical break.

The EIA release time is the single most important fixed moment for many natural gas traders. On Thursdays, you should always know whether you're holding an open position when the report lands.

What should you look for in a broker for natural gas futures?

For natural gas futures, you shouldn't just consider commission. You should check:

• Access to NYMEX and CME market data
• Margin for NG, MNG and QG
• Bracket order support
• Stop-loss and OCO orders
• DOM and order flow
• Rollover alerts
• How the broker handles expiry on physically deliverable contracts
• Platform support for TradingView, NinjaTrader or another preferred solution

TradingView can be used to track major levels, trend, seasonal patterns and the futures curve. For intraday trading, DOM, volume profile and order flow can be useful, especially around the EIA report and during large weather-related moves.

Bookmap or similar order-flow tools can help traders see liquidity levels, absorption, and areas where the market has previously reacted. This isn't a guarantee of direction, but it can give better structure around entries and risk.

For active futures traders, we rate EdgeClear as a broker setup, NinjaTrader and EdgeProX as the strongest trading platforms, and Bookmap as the specialist for order flow and heatmap.

Futures broker

EdgeClear

9.4/ 10

Available to European traders · Tested by our team.

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Preferred trading platform

NinjaTrader

9.3/ 10

DOM · ATM order types.

Read the review Visit NinjaTrader Advertiser link

Order flow & heatmap

Bookmap

9.1/ 10

Heatmap · Order flow.

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Strategies for natural gas futures

Trend-following after a weather shift

Natural gas can trend when weather models, storage development and technical structure all point the same way.

A possible long setup could be:

• A colder weather forecast than expected
• Price above VWAP
• Higher highs and higher lows on the intraday chart
• A break and acceptance above key resistance
• Rising volume on the move up

A possible short setup could be the opposite:

• A milder weather forecast
• Price below VWAP
• Lower highs and lower lows
• A failed retest of resistance
• Weak follow-through after bullish news

EIA breakout

The EIA report can create large moves within seconds. That's why it's often more controlled to wait for the first reaction than to try to guess the number.

A practical approach could be:

• Mark the high and low from the first minutes after the report.
• Watch whether the market gets acceptance above or below that area.
• Wait for a retest or confirmation in volume.
• Use MNG if the NG risk is too large.
• Have your stop-loss defined before entry.

Mean reversion after a failed break

Natural gas can have sharp first reactions that quickly fail. If the price breaks higher after EIA data but can't hold the level, a move back toward VWAP or a prior volume area can become relevant.

This requires discipline. It's not enough that the price "has moved a lot." You need signs that the breakout is actually failing: lower highs, a lack of volume follow-through, rejection at the level, and a pullback below VWAP.

VWAP reclaim

VWAP can work as an intraday filter.

A possible long setup:

• Price falls below VWAP
• Sellers fail to extend the move down
• Price reclaims VWAP
• A retest holds above VWAP
• Delta or volume confirms buyers

A possible short setup is the opposite.

Calendar spreads

Calendar spreads are more advanced and involve the relationship between two different contract months, for example winter versus summer.

These are often used by more experienced traders and professionals to express a view on storage, season, and future market balance. Most retail traders should learn direct trading in MNG or NG first.

Example trades in natural gas futures

MNG long after a bullish EIA report

The same trade in NG would have produced roughly $900 of risk and $1,900 of potential gain.

NG short after a milder weather forecast

The example shows why NG requires solid capital management. Even a seemingly moderate stop-loss of $0.10 equals $1,000 of risk per contract.

Checklist before you trade natural gas futures

Common mistakes trading natural gas futures

• Using NG too early. The standard contract is large and can produce substantial losses on normal volatility.
• Mixing up NG, MNG and QG. They track the same market, but the risk per move is completely different.
• Trading EIA data without a plan. The first price move isn't always the correct direction.
• Ignoring the weather models. Natural gas can react more to weather shifts than to technical levels.
• Buying after an extreme rally. Natural gas can have aggressive pullbacks and false breaks.
• Using stops that are too tight. Normal volatility can hit the stop even if the analysis is right on a larger timeframe.
• Using margin as a risk budget. Margin is a collateral requirement, not a maximum loss.
• Forgetting about rollover. Contract month, volume and open interest need to be followed.
• Assuming Henry Hub tracks European gas directly. LNG links the markets, but Henry Hub is still a physical US market.
• Holding NG too close to expiry. Standard NG is physically deliverable and should normally be closed or rolled before the delivery process becomes relevant.

Best brokers and platforms for natural gas futures

Glossary

Sources and further reading

• CME Group: Henry Hub Natural Gas futures
• CME Group: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas futures
• CME Group: E-mini Natural Gas futures
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: Natural Gas Data
• Best Futures: Commodity futures
• Best Futures: Oil futures
• Best Futures: Futures rollover and expiry

CME states that the Henry Hub contracts come in several sizes: NG at 10,000 MMBtu, MNG at 1,000 MMBtu, and QG at 2,500 MMBtu. Standard NG is physically deliverable, while MNG and QG are financially settled.

Conclusion: natural gas futures is a market for prepared traders

Natural gas futures are among the most interesting markets for traders who want direct exposure to supply, demand, weather and energy economics.

NG gives exposure to the US Henry Hub price, but the standard contract is large. A single move of $0.10 per MMBtu equals $1,000 in NG. That's why MNG is a more sensible starting point for many retail traders.

The best natural gas trader doesn't just look at the chart. They follow EIA storage data, weather forecasts, LNG exports, production developments, power demand, the futures curve and key technical levels at the same time.

When weather, storage balance and technical structure all point the same way, natural gas can trend hard. When the signals conflict, the market can become fast, jumpy and hard to control.

Capital risk: Futures trading carries a high level of risk and isn't suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed the capital deposited. This article is general information, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions about natural gas futures

Short answers to questions European traders often have before considering NG, MNG or QG.