In briefWhat you need to know
- WTI futures (CL) rose toward $104 on Thursday before correcting toward $100 on Friday, driven by US-Iran tension and reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- A hot US PPI print on Thursday (0.4% month-on-month, 5.4% year-on-year) pushed long-term yields higher and hit Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures.
- Gold (GC) was on track for its third straight negative week, as higher rates and a firmer dollar outweighed geopolitical uncertainty.
- The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on Thursday — its second hike of 2026 — with Lagarde warning that inflation could prove more persistent.
- Norwegian CPI fell 0.3% from July to August, but services inflation stayed sticky ahead of Norges Bank's 24 September meeting.
- US CPI for August is published Friday at 2:30pm CET and could decide whether this week's moves continue or correct.
This week can be summed up in a single chain of events: geopolitical risk lifted the oil price, more expensive energy sharpened inflation fears, and higher rate expectations hit the most rate-sensitive markets. The charts for NQ, ES, GC and CL show four different expressions of the same macro story.
The levels below are read from the attached 30-minute charts around noon on Friday. They are snapshots — not weekly closing prices.
CL was the week's main event
WTI futures (CL) climbed from the $92–93 area early in the week to above $104 on Thursday, before pulling back toward $100 on Friday morning.
The CL chart is the clearest trend chart of the four. Buyers kept lifting the market to new highs before the move accelerated on Thursday. Friday's drop to $99.92, below the short nine-period average at $101.16, shows profit-taking after a near-parabolic rally. That doesn't change the bigger picture, though: WTI was still on track for a double-digit weekly gain.
Behind the move is renewed conflict between the US and Iran, reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and fears that the supply risk could prove more lasting. According to Reuters, both Brent and WTI were on track Friday to rise more than ten percent over the week.
US inventory data alone doesn't explain the rally. The EIA reported a modest 0.4-million-barrel drop in commercial crude stocks, while gasoline stocks rose 1.3 million and distillate stocks 2.1 million barrels. Total petroleum stocks rose 6.3 million barrels, and the demand indicator products supplied was 3.7 percent lower than a year earlier. The market was therefore trading first and foremost on geopolitical scarcity risk — not a clearly strong US demand report.
Hot PPI hit NQ and ES
Nasdaq futures (NQ) fell from the week's high near 29,750 to around 29,050 on Thursday, before a rebound lifted the contract back toward 29,300 on Friday morning.
Thursday's US producer prices deepened the problem for index futures. The BLS showed final-demand PPI rose 0.4 percent in August and 5.4 percent year-on-year. Goods prices rose 1.1 percent, the energy component 4.2 percent, and diesel prices a full 24.1 percent in a single month. The measure excluding food, energy and trade margins rose 0.3 percent on the month and 4.7 percent on the year.
The figures illustrate why the oil rally isn't just a commodity story. If higher energy and transport costs spread into other goods and services, the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer — or tighten further. At the same time there were few signs of sudden labour-market weakness: new jobless claims fell to 206,000, while continuing claims stood at 1.774 million, according to the US Department of Labor.
NQ typically reacts more strongly than ES when long-term yields rise, because a larger share of its valuation sits in earnings expected far into the future. The chart shows exactly this sensitivity: lower highs through the week, a sharp break on Thursday, and then a fast but so far incomplete rebound. The 29,400–29,500 area is the zone the contract lost before Thursday's drop. Only a durable return there would give the rebound more technical weight.
S&P 500 futures (ES) fell from around 7,750 to below 7,600, before recovering to about 7,637 on Friday morning.
ES shows the same direction, but with less technology concentration and therefore somewhat lower rate sensitivity. Friday's move above the short moving average at 7,625 is constructive intraday. The contract still sits clearly below the week's high, though, and Thursday's heavy selling volume shows the market took the inflation risk seriously.
Gold lost the battle against rates
Gold futures (GC) fell from around 4,475 early in the week to near 4,345, before the price recovered to about 4,394 on Friday morning.
The gold picture is more complex. Geopolitical unrest normally provides support, but this week higher government bond yields and a firmer dollar weighed more heavily. Gold was on track Friday for its third negative week in a row and a decline of nearly two percent, according to Reuters.
The chart shows a clear rebound from the 4,345–4,350 area and a return above the nine-period average at 4,387. That improves short-term momentum, but the price immediately runs into an earlier breakdown zone around 4,400–4,425. Gold traders therefore need more than just geopolitical unease; they also need Friday's CPI to ease rate and dollar pressure.
What we're watching closest
We're particularly watching whether the oil rally starts spilling over into broader inflation expectations, or whether it stays an isolated geopolitical risk premium. That distinction could decide whether yields keep rising, or whether the market finds its way back to the calm of earlier this summer.
The ECB responded to energy-driven inflation
Europe added to the global rate jitters. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50 percent — its second rate hike of 2026. Eurozone inflation stood at 3.3 percent in August, and the ECB lifted its forecast for average price growth in 2026 to 3.0 percent. Growth, meanwhile, is projected at a modest 0.9 percent. Christine Lagarde warned that inflation could prove more persistent, even as the energy shock creates downside risk for growth, according to Reuters.
That is an uncomfortable combination for European equity and bond futures: weak growth doesn't necessarily protect the market if energy prices force the central bank to prioritise inflation.
Norway: lower monthly prices, but sticky services inflation
Norwegian inflation data was milder on a monthly basis, but not uniformly weak. Statistics Norway (SSB) reported that CPI fell 0.3 percent from July to August, while annual growth rose to 3.3 percent. Core CPI (CPI-ATE) fell 0.5 percent on the month and rose 3.0 percent year-on-year.
Food prices fell 1.4 percent from July, but services prices were still 3.8 percent higher than a year earlier. Labour-intensive services rose 3.9 percent, or 4.1 percent excluding administered prices. That gives Norges Bank a more nuanced picture ahead of its 24 September rate meeting: core inflation is lower than feared earlier in the year, but domestic price pressure hasn't disappeared. At the same time, oil above $100 could support Norwegian export revenue and the krone, but also delay easing through higher global inflation.
| Market | Direction this week | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| CL (oil) | Sharply higher, corrected Friday | US-Iran tension, reduced Hormuz traffic |
| NQ (Nasdaq) | Lower, partial rebound Friday | Hot PPI, higher rates |
| ES (S&P 500) | Lower, partial rebound Friday | Rate expectations, lower tech weight than NQ |
| GC (gold) | Lower, third straight week | Higher rates, firmer dollar |
Friday's CPI decides the final picture
The week's last and potentially most important test comes at 2:30pm CET, when the BLS publishes US CPI for August. The market is particularly vulnerable to a surprise in core inflation, services and housing costs. The energy component will already matter, but the latest oil rally has mostly come after the measurement period and could therefore become a bigger theme in upcoming reports.
A cooler core reading could pull government bond yields down, support gold, and give NQ more tailwind than ES. A hot reading would fit into Thursday's PPI story and could again pressure index and gold futures. For CL the reaction is less linear: high inflation could strengthen the dollar and weaken the demand outlook, but geopolitical supply risk remains the market's dominant force.
The conclusion ahead of Friday's US session is therefore clear: oil has set the tone, rates have transmitted the shock to NQ, ES and gold, and CPI will decide whether the week's final move is a continuation or a correction. The four charts show that Friday's rebound has improved the very short-term picture — but hasn't yet erased the week's risk reduction.
Risk note
This is general market commentary, not personal investment advice. Futures are leveraged instruments carrying a high level of risk and are not suitable for everyone. Consider your own capital, experience and risk tolerance before trading.
Sources
- Reuters: Oil prices set to end week over $100
- EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- BLS: Producer Price Index
- US Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
- Reuters: Gold on track for third weekly loss
- Reuters: Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
- Statistics Norway: Consumer Price Index
- BLS: Consumer Price Index Release Schedule