In briefWhat you need to know
- Equity indices open the week near fresh local highs after the oil price fell sharply from last week's level.
- Wednesday's PMI readings from the US and Europe, and Germany's Ifo survey on Thursday, are the week's first major growth test.
- The ECB is weighing whether its 2.50% deposit rate marks the peak, with a dense run of speeches from Lagarde, Nagel and Lane - and markets are also watching for signals from the Bank of England as it navigates a similar inflation-versus-growth balance.
- US housing data, durable goods orders and the Michigan survey round out the week on Friday.
- CLX26 has fallen from around $102.5 to $94.4, while GCZ26 remains stuck between support and resistance near $4,390.
Strong open after a tough Fed week
The market has quickly shaken off the initial rate jitters after the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. The Fed also signalled that inflation remains too high and that further tightening could be needed. Even so, a lower oil price and continued optimism around technology and artificial intelligence have given equity futures fresh support.
The attached 15-minute charts show the rebound clearly. ESZ26 sits around 7,761 and has recovered the entire post-Fed decline. NQZ26 has broken above 30,000 and trades near 30,241 after rallying from a low around 29,050. Both remain above their short-term moving averages, but disappointing macro data or a fresh jump in rates could quickly trigger profit-taking.
Wednesday's PMIs are the first big test
The week's most concentrated temperature check lands on Wednesday. Germany's manufacturing PMI is expected to edge down marginally from 54.3 to 54.0, while the services index is expected to rise from 49.7 to 50.0, putting the composite at 51.7. Readings above 50 normally indicate growth, so the forecasts point to a cautious German improvement rather than a sharp upturn.
For the eurozone, the composite PMI is expected to fall from 52.0 to 51.6. Stronger growth combined with higher input prices could push European rates up and make an ECB pause harder to justify. Softer new orders would support bonds but raise fresh questions about whether industry can absorb costlier energy.
The US follows at 15:45 CET. Services PMI is expected to ease from 56.5 to 56.0 and manufacturing PMI from 53.9 to 53.6 - still solid levels. For NQ and ES, a moderate cooling is likely easier to digest than a fresh pickup in both activity and prices, since another strong inflation signal could lift Treasury yields and raise the odds of yet another Fed hike.
German Ifo and the ECB's energy problem
Thursday brings Germany's Ifo survey. The business climate index is expected to rise from 88.8 to 89.0, with the expectations component seen at 89.3. August's figures showed the strongest export optimism since 2022, but the picture remains fragile: fiscal stimulus and improving order books are running up against high energy and transport costs.
That is also at the heart of the ECB's dilemma. The central bank recently raised rates again, and the deposit rate now stands at 2.50%. A new ECB analysis of energy prices finds that higher wholesale gas prices can feed into consumer prices faster than previously assumed. This week's economic bulletin and speeches from Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel and Philip Lane will be read closely for signals on how much more tightening the central bank is considering - a question that extends beyond the eurozone, with the Bank of England facing much the same trade-off between sticky inflation and slowing growth.
US housing, durable goods orders and Fed speakers
On Thursday, initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 196,000 to 206,500, while continuing claims are seen at 1.779 million. New home sales are meanwhile expected to increase 1.3% to an annualised pace of 615,500, following last month's 10.5% drop. The Census Bureau confirms the release is due Thursday.
Friday brings durable goods orders. Headline orders are expected to fall 0.3% after a 1.1% rise, while core orders are expected to climb 0.6%. The latter figure is especially telling, since it says more about underlying business investment than the volatile headline number.
The University of Michigan survey closes out the week. Consumer sentiment is expected to hold steady at 47.8, while preliminary one- and five-year inflation expectations of 4.6% and 3.4% remain too high for the Fed to ignore. Fed speeches and auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year Treasuries could also move rate futures.
Oil falls - gold awaits the rate path
CLX26 has retreated from roughly $102.5 to $94.4. The chart shows lower highs following last week's sharp rally, but also signs of stabilisation around $94. Wednesday's EIA inventory data will matter: fresh builds could reinforce the correction, while a surprise draw in crude and distillates could send the market back toward $96-98.
GCZ26 sits around 4,391 after failing to hold the area above 4,430. Gold is therefore caught between support from geopolitical uncertainty and headwinds from high real yields. A break below the 4,360 area would weaken the near-term picture, while 4,420-4,440 again stands out as resistance.
The week's biggest question
This is a quieter week than the Fed week, but not necessarily a less important one. Wednesday shows whether growth is holding up. Thursday tests the rate story via Ifo, the ECB's ongoing communication and US labour-market and housing data. Friday rounds out the picture with durable goods orders and inflation expectations.
For ES and NQ, the key question is whether growth can moderate without denting earnings expectations. For gold, the week is about real yields and the dollar. For oil, it's whether the pullback toward $94 is a normal correction or the start of a more lasting reversal. On top of that, US-China meetings could generate headlines that temporarily overshadow the macro data. Risk appetite is strong - but it's being tested from several directions at once.
Risk note
This is general market commentary, not personal investment advice. Futures are leveraged instruments carrying a high level of risk.