Nvidia lifted Nasdaq, but inflation keeps rate jitters alive

The week heads into the final US trading day with two conflicting signals. On one hand, Nvidia has again reminded the market why the AI trade can still dominate Nasdaq futures. On the other, the macro data shows inflation hasn't let go, even as parts of consumer spending and the housing market weaken.

That makes the picture demanding for futures traders. The market got enough tech optimism to lift NQ and ES, but not enough macro clarity to price away the risk of higher rates. It's exactly this combination that makes the end of the week important for S&P 500 futures, interest rate futures, gold futures and oil futures.

The week started with softer growth signals

On Monday, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July, from a revised 0.06 the month before. The index suggests US activity ran somewhat below its long-term trend, but the level wasn't low enough to signal an imminent recession. The data is published via FRED, sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Tuesday brought a clearer warning signal from households. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August, while the expectations index dropped to 68.2. The latter is a level that normally gets the market's attention, because weaker expectations often feed through to spending and investment with a lag.

The housing market was even weaker. New home sales fell 10.5% to an annualized rate of 607,000 units. Inventory equated to 9.6 months of sales, while the median price fell to $393,800. That points to a housing market where high long-term rates are still biting.

The combination of weaker confidence and home sales initially pressured index futures, especially NQ. The tech contract traded down toward 29,100 on Tuesday after starting the week around 29,400.

Inflation didn't fall, but industry surprised

Wednesday's big macro data package didn't give an easy conclusion. US GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter, unchanged from the first estimate. Underneath, private domestic demand was revised up to 4.2%, while weaker government spending held back total growth. That's according to the BEA's second GDP estimate.

Price pressure stayed high at the same time. PCE inflation was 3.7% in July, while core PCE held at 3.3%. Both indices rose 0.2% from the month before. Real consumer spending was roughly unchanged, even though real disposable income rose 0.4%. In other words, Americans got more purchasing power but spent little of the gain.

Industry delivered a stronger signal. Durable goods orders rose 1.1% to $339.3 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Transportation equipment contributed most to the increase. That supported the outlook for industrial activity, but at the same time gave the Federal Reserve less reason to ease quickly.

This picture was reinforced Thursday, when new jobless claims fell to 203,000. Continuing claims dropped to 1.778 million. The Department of Labor's weekly figures show a labor market cooling through weaker hiring, while companies are still carrying out few layoffs.

The rates market's dilemma

This is neither a pure growth shock nor a clean inflation relief. For the futures market, it's exactly this mix that's demanding: weaker household signals pull rate expectations down, while sticky core inflation and solid industrial data keep the risk of tighter policy alive.

Nvidia reignited the AI trade

The week's clearly most important corporate earnings came from Nvidia. Revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year. Data center revenue rose 117% to $89 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.22.

Even more important was the guidance: Nvidia expects revenue of around $108 billion in the current quarter. That eased fears that AI infrastructure investment was starting to slow. The figures come from Nvidia's quarterly report.

The reaction was clear. Nvidia shares surged Thursday, and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.57%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.72%. The rally was narrower than the headlines suggested, though. Technology carried much of the lift, which makes the market more vulnerable if the AI trade loses momentum.

Four futures markets, four different signals

NQ futures made the week's sharpest reversal. The contract rose from the 29,200-29,300 area to above 29,600 after the macro data and Nvidia's results. Friday morning CET, NQ traded around 29,616, just below both VWAP and the 21-period moving average at 29,640. That shows consolidation after the rally, not necessarily a confirmed reversal.

ES futures showed greater relative strength. The contract sat around 7,741 and held marginally above VWAP and the moving average around 7,738. As long as the 7,720-7,735 area holds, buyers still have technical control. At the same time, the narrow sector breadth leaves the market vulnerable if the Nvidia effect fades.

Gold futures had a volatile week. GC first rose toward 4,750, then fell below 4,630 before recovering to around 4,664 on Friday. The contract is again above VWAP and the 21-period average near 4,645. High government bond yields limit the upside, but concerns around US debt, geopolitics and persistent inflation support demand.

WTI futures fell from above $85 to near $80 before Thursday's rebound. US crude inventories rose just 95,000 barrels, far less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell. Still, CL sat around $82.89 on Friday, below both VWAP and the 21-period average. Thursday's rebound therefore hasn't repaired the full weekly decline.

Norway is growing, but households stay cautious

Mainland Norway GDP grew 0.3% in the second quarter. Growth was lifted partly by public consumption, manufacturing and aquaculture. At the same time, household consumption was weak, and activity in construction declined. Statistics Norway's (SSB) national accounts describe a mixed growth picture, where public demand and energy pull the economy up while high interest rates still weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.

Friday's retail sales data underlined the caution. Retail sales volume fell 0.7% in July, and SSB describes the underlying trend as declining.

NAV's figures, meanwhile, don't support a Norwegian recession scenario. Registered unemployment remains low, at around 2.1% nationally. That means the Norwegian economy still has a tight labor market, even though weaker retail sales, cautious consumption and lower demand for certain skill groups show that higher rates are having an effect.

Conclusion ahead of the final trading day

The week hasn't given the futures market one clear main narrative. Nvidia gave the tech sector a powerful lift, but PCE, housing data and the rates market are a reminder that the inflation fight isn't over. That leaves a market where index futures can stay strong, while rates, gold and oil still react quickly to new macro signals.

For active traders, the main point therefore isn't that the risk is gone. It's that it has changed shape. The AI trade supports Nasdaq, but rate jitters are still alive beneath the surface.

Risk note

This is general market commentary, not personal investment advice. Futures carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Sources

• FRED / Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
• The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence
• US Census Bureau: New Residential Sales
• BEA: GDP second estimate, 2nd quarter 2026
• BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026
• US Census Bureau: Durable Goods, July 2026
• U.S. Department of Labor: Weekly unemployment claims
• EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• Nvidia Investor Relations: Q2 fiscal 2027 results
• AP: U.S. market close, 27 August 2026
• Statistics Norway: Norwegian economy grew in Q2
• Statistics Norway: Retail sales down in July