In briefWhat you need to know
- Wednesday is the week's most important day, with US CPI, the IEA report, the OPEC report, EIA inventory data and a US 10-year auction.
- Thursday follows with Norges Bank's rate decision, US PPI, jobless claims, natural gas inventories and a 30-year auction.
- Friday's retail sales and Michigan sentiment could give the last directional signal before the weekend.
- This is a week where rates, index futures, oil, gold and currencies — including the Norwegian krone — could all react at once.
This week brings several data points that could move markets across rates, index futures, commodities and currencies. The calendar carries extra weight because markets have already reacted to weak US jobs data. Now it's about inflation, demand, and whether central banks have room to wait.
The week starts quietly, but Norwegian CPI data is a reminder that price pressure is still a factor. For international futures traders, the main risk window runs from Tuesday through Friday, with Wednesday and Thursday the two most important days.
Wednesday: CPI, oil and the 10-year auction
Wednesday 12 August is the week's main event. US CPI at 2:30pm CET is the most important number for ES, NQ, rates, the dollar and gold. The market will be watching whether inflation confirms a softer Fed pricing path, or whether the data forces renewed rate jitters.
The same day brings the IEA's monthly oil report, OPEC's monthly report and the EIA's US inventory data. That makes the day important for WTI, Brent-related products, energy stocks and traders following commodity futures. Later that evening, a US 10-year auction could move long-term yields and risk sentiment.
Thursday: Norges Bank, PPI and jobless claims
On Thursday 13 August, Norges Bank — Norway's central bank — publishes its rate decision at 10:00am CET. For most international futures traders, the Norwegian krone isn't a top priority, but the rate decision can still be relevant for European investors, the currency market and the broader read on inflation pressure in small open economies.
At 2:30pm CET come US PPI and weekly jobless claims. PPI can confirm or ease concerns about producer-level price pressure, while jobless claims offer a fresh read on the labor market after the weak July report. For interest-rate futures, the combination of PPI, claims and the auction market matters more than any single data point in isolation.
Later Thursday brings EIA natural gas inventories and a US 30-year auction. Natural gas can see its own sharp moves around the inventory data, while the 30-year auction can signal appetite for long duration.
Friday: the consumer decides how the week closes
Friday 14 August brings US retail sales at 2:30pm CET and University of Michigan sentiment at 4:00pm CET. If this week's inflation data has been mixed, the consumer figures could end up deciding how the market heads into the weekend.
A strong consumer reading could support equities in the short term, while still keeping rate jitters alive. Weak consumer data could ease rates but stoke growth concerns. Traders should therefore watch not just the initial-minute direction, but how rates, the dollar and index futures react together.
Our priority for the week is clear: CPI first, then PPI and claims, then the oil and commodity data for the energy market. Everything else should be read through the same lens: does this affect the Fed, rates, or risk appetite?